Weekly Forecasts
Near-term weather forecasts covering synoptic patterns,
rainfall potential, temperature trends and severe weather risks
across Australia.
❄️🌧 WINTER HAS ARRIVED, right on cue!Today marks the first day of winter in Australia, with the season settling in exactly as the calendar turns over into June...
This will be more of a gusty wind event than one of significant rainfall 🌬☔️
Western Australia is now seeing cool southerlies and isolated showers, after this featured Low Pressure System tore through the states south over the weekend.
As we look towards Victoria, SA and Tasmania today, 60-80km/h+ winds are expected for coastal districts with gusts potentially nearing 90-100km/h at sea, or in Alpine areas 🌬⚠️
☔️ Rainfall will be moderate (15-25mm) in parts of the region. This will be more so the case in SE-SA, through Western-Vic
and extending into NE-Vic (see image 2)
🌧 25-40mm+ is indicated to fall in SE-SA on the coastline, along with NW Tasmania
💧1-10mm will be more common along the Vic coast, NW-Vic, Gippsland and for most of the Tasmanian mainland
1-5mm will be more common through Southern-NSW and ACT, along with,
southern SA and WA (incl. Perth with showers today and potential storms in Adelaide this afternoon)
--- For the weeks/months ahead ❄️⏳️
Across southern parts of the country, colder air, frosty mornings, and cold fronts will become more common over the coming months.
However, due to the recent forecast for
"A DRIER THAN AVERAGE WINTER",
many should make the most of what they see in these first few weeks of June, as rainfall towards the middle of July looks a lot less promising
(See comments for June & July Forecast ℹ️)
The Snow forecast is not looking good either, with a dry outlook and temperatures only just allowing the peaks of our biggest mountains to see the "white stuff" in the weekly forecast ❄️
While winter often brings the wettest time of year for parts of southern Australia, climate drivers such as El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode, will play a major role in determining where the rain falls and who misses out.
Whether you're chasing snow, hoping for some soaking rain, or preparing for those frosty mornings,
WINTER 2026 is officially underway!
--
Images sourced from Weatherzone, Meteologix
Follow Weatherman Dan for more content and updates ℹ️
Seasonal Forecasts
Long-range climate outlooks examining rainfall anomalies,
temperature expectations and broader atmospheric drivers.
2026 WINTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK 🌧/🏜
<- Generated 30 May 2026, this outlook highlights where rainfall is most likely to fall above and below average across Australia during winter.
- 🔵 Blue: Likely above average rainfall
- 🟣 Purple: Variable rainfall (above or below average)
- 🟠 Orange: Drier than average
- 🔴 Red: Very dry / potential drought risk
CLIMATE DRIVERS THIS WINTER
A GENERALLY DRIER WINTER is predicted for much of Australia this winter.
Current climate drivers, including the developing El Niño (+ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (soon to be +IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (heading towards +SAM), and broader atmospheric circulation patterns,
all point to generally less rainfall June-Aug,
especially in southern WA and SE-Australia.
🏜⚠️ - The highest risk of below-average rainfall is mostly found across parts of:
- Western Australia (south of the Gascoyne.)
- Inland Southeast Australia
- Most of New South Wales (West of GDR)
- Most of Victoria
🌧% - The best odds of above-average rainfall is mostly found across:
- The Top End
- West Tasmania
🌴🌧 During an El Niño winter,
TROPICAL MOISTURE often becomes more confined to Top End and nearby maritime regions.
This provides wetter conditions for much of the northern regions of Australia from Jun-Aug
While El Niño is already influencing the Pacific Ocean, its strongest impacts on Australia typically occur during spring and summer ⏳️
Winter effects are often more subtle and can be affected by other climate drivers which are seen to be more apparent in southern Australian states
🏔 Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be drier on the slopes this winter, but with a bit of luck, a good mid-June rain event could deliver a better-than-expected start to the ski-season.
In saying this though,
A +SAM in July and August could see less precipitation in the nations SE
(incl. SA/Tas/Vic/ACT/Southern & Western NSW).
Especially as High Pressure begins to domiate the interior.
☔️ This will therefore, deliver more rainfall to coastal NSW and SEQLD when the onshore wind's develope, more likely later in the winter
During El Nino and a neutral-positive IOD pahase,
reduced amounts of moisture are transported into the more central latitudes of Australia, which are typically dominated by westerly trade-winds 🌬➡️
This includes Most of WA but also all of SA,
Tasmania, Victoria & NSW (West of the Divide).
With High Pressure systems likely to dominate continental Australia,
East Coast NSW and potentially SEQLD
(east of the Great Dividing Range) will see more rainfall as high pressure persists.
🥶❄️ July-Aug (even September) will also get quite frosty, due to this likelihood of High Pressure dominating across Australia
Fewer widespread rain-bearing fronts
may limit rainfall opportunities across parts of the southern states, but some coastlines such as western-Vic and southern WA could avoid the worst (🌱%)
Please don't be surprised though, if these areas also tend towards drier than average this winter...
⚠️ Remember: this is a seasonal outlook, not a forecast of individual rain events.
Even in regions shaded dry, significant rainfall events can still occur.
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